It is a distorted perspective focused on a narrow time-frame that overlooks the original cost of fuel. This is because India did not reduce fuel rates when international crude oil collapsed in earlier years, which meant the benchmark price was already elevated.
New Delhi: A broadly circulated graphic shared by several pro-government journalists on social media emphasises that India’s recent fuel increase was merely 3%, whereas nations such as the US, UAE and Canada witnessed surges ranging between 30% and 80%. This portrays India as a global exception in price steadiness and suggests that the Modi government is shielding consumers.
However, it is a distorted perspective focused on a narrow time-frame that ignores the initial pricing of fuel. This is because India did not decrease fuel rates when worldwide crude oil prices crashed in previous years.
Furthermore, the data is a reactive snapshot capturing a phase of global instability where market-linked nations experienced abrupt spikes. What is required is a structural examination of data that reflects the decade-long experience of the Indian consumer under Prime Minister Narendra Modi where fuel prices remained elevated even before the crisis in West Asia.
The Base Effect is the central reason the data framework is inaccurate. India’s fuel rates have stayed high even when global crude oil prices declined, mainly because of the Modi government’s regulation over pump pricing. These substantial gains, where pump rates did not mirror the lower crude prices, flowed to the union government through cesses, excise duties and sizeable dividends from PSUs.
The deceptive data set displays fuel price rises as a percentage across a defined, restricted window. While mathematically valid, this representation is functionally inadequate. In countries with market-linked pricing such as the USA or UAE, domestic pump rates fluctuate instantly with international crude oil. During a worldwide energy surge, these countries therefore register massive percentage increases in retail fuel prices.
When the timeline is widened to a decade, as illustrated by Manoj Arora, the data exposes a contrasting pattern. This long-term perspective accounts for a period under Prime Minister Modi when international oil prices declined but domestic prices in India did not correspondingly fall.
In this chart, India’s ten-year increase of 63% is notably higher than that of major economies like the USA (36%), Germany (40%) and South Korea (39%). While India is not the highest in the ranking – Australia stands at 67% – it still remains among the top tier of fuel price inflation over the last decade, contradicting the low hike narrative promoted by pro-government journalists.
Because Indian pump rates were maintained artificially high under Prime Minister Modi, short-term percentage increases will almost always appear lower than those in market-linked economies. However, available evidence indicates that over a ten-year period, India has undergone one of the sharpest rises in fuel costs among major global economies.